politics

32 active forecasts

90%

2AI: 56±13%politics Elections

Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.

100%

1AI: 15%Israel politics

A publicly reported congress or conference held in Israel will have exactly 50 participants by December 31, 2026.

41%

3AI: 43±34%politics Geopolitics

Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.

70%

3AI: 56±20%politics Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.

56%

3politics Russia

Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.

55%

2AI: 36±13%Geopolitics politics

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

AI: 66±17%Europe Geopolitics

By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.

67%

2Geopolitics politics

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.

53%

1AI: 62±6%Geopolitics Middle East

The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.

53%

1politics Geopolitics

Vladimir Putin will die by February 7, 2031.

55%

1AI: 60%Conflict Geopolitics

A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.

AI: 76±10%politics Geopolitics

A current head of government or head of state from the UK or Norway will lose their position or formally resign due to revelations in the Epstein files by the end of 2026.

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