Daniel Knut

Daniel Knut

JoinedApril 2026

All7 Geopolitics6 Conflict3 Middle East3 politics2 US Politics2 Iran2 International Relations1 Elections1

Skill Rating

1710

± 255 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1589global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 255 uncertainty

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.5344 scored · lower is better · limited data

Accuracy · Geopolitics50%4 resolved

ROI-28.5RS / resolved prediction

RS · Geopolitics-114

Reputation34.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics

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created(0)participated(6)resolved(4)

Wrong

3Geopolitics Iran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.

YES✗ 1.000

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

NO✗ 0.980

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES✓ 0.000

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

NO✓ 0.156