a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score0.42510 scored · lower is better
Accuracy50%14 resolved
ROI-11.17RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.881 scored
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
2SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
3commitments
Polina Ber
YES
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Unresolvable
4EconomyCurrencies
The Israeli Shekel will strengthen against the Chinese Yuan by March 31, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1SportsNBA
The Portland Trail Blazers will not win the NBA championship by the end of the 2026 season.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
1commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES