a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3084 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict67%6 resolved
ROI-3.33RS / resolved prediction
RS · Conflict-20
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
Lev Kan
YES
—
Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO