Polina Ber
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1662
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1532global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1662global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.0001 scored · lower is better · limited data
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics+0.041 scored
AI Score · Geopolitics+01 scored
RS · Geopolitics+25
Reputation125.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
Lev Kan
YES
A significant public split within the Russian political or security elites will occur due to internet blockades by January 1 2029 00:01
2commitments
Polina Ber
YES
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Yana Elisonian
YES
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
3commitments
Polina Ber
YES
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
2commitments
Polina Ber
NO
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Ilya
NO