Middle East

34 active forecasts

70%

1AI: 66±4%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026.

Kron BM

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Israel and Lebanon will sign a formal agreement on security or border arrangements by November 6, 2026.

komapc

18%

1AI: 38±7%Geopolitics Conflict

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

komapc

60%

1AI: 49±6%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will conduct a ground invasion of Kharg Island by December 31, 2026

komapc

AI: 58±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Oman will join the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026.

komapc

49%

3AI: 62±28%Geopolitics Middle East

Egypt will join the Abraham Accords by January 1st, 2030.

Kobi Kai Calev

40%

2AI: 56±16%Geopolitics Africa

Somaliland will become an official part of the Abraham Accords by the end of 2027

Kobi Kai Calev

50%

3AI: 62±40%Geopolitics politics

The US will officially recognise Somaliland by the end of 2027

Kobi Kai Calev

48%

1AI: 67±3%Geopolitics Middle East

Rockets or drones are launched directly from Israel to Iran, or from Iran to Israel, by 31 August 2026.

komapc

25%

3AI: 49±13%Geopolitics Middle East

A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026.

komapc

28%

1AI: 34±4%Geopolitics Energy

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict normal levels by September 30, 2026.

komapc

32%

2AI: 59±18%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

komapc

19%

3AI: 38±4%politics Elections

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

komapc

49%

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

85%

3AI: 63±10%politics Geopolitics

The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.

komapc

64%

2AI: 54±27%politics Law

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

komapc

27%

3AI: 58±19%Geopolitics Conflict

Turkey will acquire nuclear weapons by May 6, 2029.

Dor Moriah

AI: 47±34%Geopolitics Middle East

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are officially restored to ambassadorial level by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

29%

1AI: 64±5%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapc

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