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komapc (@komapc) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

k

komapc

A

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All136 Geopolitics68 politics40 Conflict38 Middle East30 Technology22 Israel21 Elections18 Israeli Elections 202617

ELO Rating

1452

Geopolitics only · head-to-head

Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.

created(73)participated(68)resolved(20)

Wrong

1Geopolitics Economy

The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today

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NO

Correct

2Conflict Geopolitics

The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.

YES

Wrong

1Conflict Geopolitics

Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.

NO

1AI: 63±10%Geopolitics Asia

Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.

NO

Correct

1Conflict Geopolitics

The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.

NO

1AI: 74±7%Conflict Geopolitics

Significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher is reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026.

YES

Correct

1Conflict Geopolitics

The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.

YES

2AI: 48±16%Geopolitics politics

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.

NO

Performance

Accuracy · Geopolitics68%19 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.24114 scored · lower is better

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.