a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.4275 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics57%7 resolved
ROI-12.14RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-85
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
1commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES