Evgeny Ber

Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

All25 Geopolitics15 Conflict9 Middle East7 politics5 Sports5 Chess4 Europe3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1616

± 195 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1429global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1616global · ± 195 uncertainty

Brier Score0.2757 scored · lower is better

Accuracy57%7 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score-0.011 scored

ROI-2.43RS / resolved prediction

AI Score-0.011 scored

Reputation83.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Conflict-0.014(1)

Geopolitics-0.014(1)

Middle East-0.014(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

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created(2)participated(25)resolved(7)

2AI: 36±13%Geopolitics politics

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

YES

3AI: 72±25%Sports Chess

Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

YES

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

YES

3Geopolitics Conflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

NO

2AI: 59±10%Geopolitics Conflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

YES

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