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Daniel Knut (@null) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

Daniel Knut

Daniel Knut

JoinedApril 2026

All20 Geopolitics10 politics9 Middle East8 Conflict6 Elections5 Iran3 Israel3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1710

± 255 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1589global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 255 uncertainty

Brier Score0.5344 scored · lower is better · limited data

Accuracy50%4 resolved

ROI-28.5RS / resolved prediction

Reputation34.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History

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created(3)participated(20)resolved(4)

3AI: 41±20%politics Israeli Elections 2026

The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.

NO

3AI: 81±13%Quantum Computing Technology

A fault-tolerant quantum computer will be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030.

NO

3AI: 84±28%Education Technology

Most children aged 6-18 in all Western countries will be educated through home learning, using artificial intelligence, by August 27, 2036.

NO

1AI: 75±11%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will conduct a nuclear test by December 31, 2026.

NO

1AI: 12±15%Geopolitics Conflict

The US will officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026.

NO

4AI: 26±11%Geopolitics Conflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

NO

4AI: 65±8%politics Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.

NO

2AI: 97±4%politics Israeli Elections 2026

At least two Arab parties will run in the 2026 elections as a joint list.

YES

1AI: 63±14%politics Israel

Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.

NO

1AI: 78±4%Geopolitics Middle East

Israel will annex West Bank territory before 2027.

NO

1AI: 68±23%politics Israeli Elections

Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Hanoch Milwidsky on the Otzma Yehudit party list for the next general elections in Israel.

YES

2AI: 5±28%politics Elections

Itamar Ben-Gvir will not reserve a spot for Idit Silman on the Otzma Yehudit party list by December 31, 2026.

YES

4AI: 61±9%politics Elections

Gadi Eisenkot will be Prime Minister of Israel after the elections held on October 27, 2026, possibly as part of a rotation agreement.

YES

Wrong

3Geopolitics Iran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.

YES

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

NO

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES

3AI: 53±39%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.

NO

7AI: 63±7%politics Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.

NO

2AI: 53±7%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.

NO

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

NO