Daniel Knut
JoinedApril 2026
Skill Rating
1500
± 350 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1500global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1500global · ± 350 uncertainty
Brier Score0.9902 scored · lower is better · limited data
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
7commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
4commitments
Uri Gordon
NO