Daniel Knut

Daniel Knut

JoinedApril 2026

All7 Geopolitics6 Conflict3 Middle East3 politics2 US Politics2 Iran2 International Relations1 Elections1

Skill Rating

1710

± 255 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1589global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 255 uncertainty

Brier Score0.5344 scored · lower is better · limited data

Accuracy50%4 resolved

ROI-28.5RS / resolved prediction

Reputation34.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History

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created(0)participated(7)resolved(4)

Wrong

3Geopolitics Iran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.

YES

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

NO

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES

3AI: 37%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.

NO

7AI: 70±25%politics Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.

NO

2AI: 79±13%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.

NO

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

NO