k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.2132 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East67%6 resolved
ROI+1.79RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Middle East+0.471 scored
RS · Middle East+10.8
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.017
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO✗ 0.410
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES