a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score0.42510 scored · lower is better
Accuracy50%14 resolved
ROI-11.17RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.881 scored
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
7commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
Israel will officially implement a nationwide universal basic income (UBI) program for its citizens by April 19, 2036.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
1SportsNBA
Portland will win at least one game against San Antonio in their playoff series by May 15, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
2ChessSports
Javokhir Sindarov will lose his game in the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 played on April 14, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
3commitments
RH
Roman Halfin
NO
—
The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
No source link
4commitments
Maria Deshpet
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO
—
Daatan will have a higher reported active user count than Kalshi in Israel by December 31, 2027.
No source link
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
