a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.4275 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics57%7 resolved
ROI-12.14RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-85
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
Lev Kan
YES
—
Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
3commitments
RH
Roman Halfin
NO
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.
3commitments
Polina Ber
YES
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES