Evgeny Ber
JoinedMarch 2026
Skill Rating
1616
± 195 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1429global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1616global · ± 195 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3176 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Geopolitics-0.011 scored
ROI-6.67RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics-0.011 scored
RS · Geopolitics-40
Reputation83.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
NO
There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.
YES
A significant public split within the Russian political or security elites will occur due to internet blockades by January 1 2029 00:01
YES
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
YES
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
NO
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
YES
