A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

Uri Gordon

YES

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

Iran war will not resume

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

komapc

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will be Hungary PM

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES

3AI: 39±43%Geopolitics US Politics

US will withdraw from UN

The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Correct

2Iran Geopolitics

Iran conflict will see ceasefire

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

2AI: 41±11%Geopolitics politics

Lukashenko won't be Belarus President

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

komapc

YES

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

Hormuz Strait will be closed

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

komapc

YES

4AI: 33±13%Geopolitics Conflict

Global conflicts will cease

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

Anti Spamer

2AI: 55±5%Geopolitics Conflict

US will invade Kharg

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

Ilya

YES

Performance

Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3176 scored · lower is better

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.