Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

All25 Geopolitics15 Conflict9 Middle East7 politics5 Sports5 Chess4 Europe3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1616

± 195 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1429global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1616global · ± 195 uncertainty

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3176 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Geopolitics-0.011 scored

ROI-6.67RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Geopolitics-0.011 scored

RS · Geopolitics-40

Reputation83.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics

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created(0)participated(15)resolved(6)

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

Lev Kan

YES✗ 0.497

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

Uri Gordon

YES✗ 0.490

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

komapc

NO✗ 0.490

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES✓ 0.023

Correct

2Iran Geopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

NO✓ 0.202

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

komapc

YES✓ 0.203