A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

Uri Gordon

YES✗ 0.490

Correct

3Conflict Geopolitics

Iran war will not resume

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

komapc

NO✗ 0.490

Correct

4Geopolitics politics

Peter Magyar will be Hungary PM

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES✓ 0.023

Correct

2Conflict Geopolitics

Iran conflict will see ceasefire

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

NO✓ 0.202

Correct

5Conflict Geopolitics

Hormuz Strait will be closed

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

komapc

YES✓ 0.203

Performance

Accuracy · Geopolitics50%6 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3176 scored · lower is better

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.