k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
Loading…
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
Pending
1AITechnology
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
TechnologyAI
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
1commitments
K
komapcA
EuropeGeopolitics
By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.
Wrong
Religious Prophecy