Geopolitics

75 active forecasts

45%

4AI: 58±8%Geopolitics Defense

The U.S. will formally approve an F-35 sale to Turkey by December 31, 2026.

komapc

37%

4AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

komapc

39%

2AI: 79±32%Geopolitics France

France and Syria will announce the reopening of their respective embassies by January 7, 2027.

komapc

AI: 50±10%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will publicly present its new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, by December 31, 2026.

komapc

28%

1AI: 34±4%Geopolitics Energy

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict normal levels by September 30, 2026.

komapc

32%

2AI: 59±18%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

komapc

79%

1AI: 42±16%politics Geopolitics

Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.

komapc

49%

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

85%

3AI: 63±10%politics Geopolitics

The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.

komapc

53%

1AI: 70±11%Conflict Africa

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

komapc

45%

2AI: 43±9%Geopolitics Europe

Armenia will join the European Union by December 31, 2026.

komapc

40%

1AI: 58±42%Europe politics

The European Union will admit at least two new member states by May 28, 2028.

komapc

53%

2AI: 64±36%Geopolitics Europe

By December 31, 2028, Montenegro will become a full member state of the European Union.

Kron BM

71%

3AI: 86±2%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.

komapc

65%

3AI: 49±10%Geopolitics Russia

Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.

andrey1bar

27%

3AI: 58±19%Geopolitics Conflict

Turkey will acquire nuclear weapons by May 6, 2029.

Dor Moriah

AI: 47±34%Geopolitics Middle East

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are officially restored to ambassadorial level by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

29%

1AI: 64±5%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

45%

2AI: 63±8%politics Geopolitics

Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapc

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