Geopolitics

55 active forecasts

75%

2AI: 84±11%Geopolitics Conflict

The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.

15%

2AI: 70%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.

72%

2AI: 40%politics Geopolitics

A significant public split within the Russian political or security elites will occur due to internet blockades by January 1 2029 00:01

48%

2AI: 70±9%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.

20%

1AI: 25%Geopolitics US Politics

President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

84%

4AI: 72±17%Economy Geopolitics

The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.

24%

3AI: 50%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.

AI: 5%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026.

91%

3AI: 76±6%politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

41%

3AI: 43±34%politics Geopolitics

Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.

76%

3AI: 90%Geopolitics Conflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

35%

2AI: 45%Economy Energy

The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.

88%

2AI: 89±17%Geopolitics Conflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

55%

3AI: 95%Geopolitics Russia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

56%

3politics Russia

Vladimir Putin will make fewer public appearances in the full calendar year 2026 compared to the full calendar year 2025.

43%

2Technology Geopolitics

Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.

60%

2AI: 28%Geopolitics Conflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

54%

4Geopolitics Conflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

59%

3Geopolitics Conflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

51%

1Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

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