komapc

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All112 Geopolitics62 Conflict35 politics29 Middle East27 Technology18 Israel14 Elections12 Business11

Skill Rating

1782

± 132 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(35)participated(35)resolved(13)

3AI: 66±5%Geopolitics Conflict

At least one more drone will fall in one of the Baltic countries after August 15 and by September 15, 2026.

komapc

YES

1AI: 38±7%Geopolitics Conflict

The IDF will begin withdrawing forces beyond the Yellow Line in Gaza before September 20, 2026.

komapc

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1AI: 51±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States grants Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missile systems by October 31, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES

3AI: 59±4%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will initiate a direct military strike against Israel before Israel initiates a direct military strike against Iran by July 22, 2031.

komapc

YES

Correct

1Geopolitics Conflict

WIll USA bomb Iran in 2025?

Mark Janwuf

YES

3AI: 58±4%Geopolitics Conflict

The Ukrainian army takes back, at least temporarily, a part of occupied Crimea by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 67±3%Geopolitics Middle East

Rockets or drones are launched directly from Israel to Iran, or from Iran to Israel, by 31 August 2026.

komapc

3AI: 49±13%Geopolitics Middle East

A Jewish settlement, official or unofficial, will be established in Lebanese territory by December 31, 2026.

komapc

4AI: 60±5%Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

komapc

2AI: 59±18%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon will officially recognize Israel by December 31, 2026.

komapc

5AI: 63±6%Geopolitics Conflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

Lev Kan

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES

1AI: 52±2%Geopolitics US Politics

President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 42±16%politics Geopolitics

Bolivia's nationwide state of emergency will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026.

komapc

YES

Wrong

6Geopolitics Conflict

Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 70±11%Conflict Africa

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

komapc

YES

Correct

2Geopolitics Conflict

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.

komapc

YES

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.

komapc

YES

2AI: 39±3%Geopolitics Conflict

The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

YES

Performance

ELO Rating1439global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1782global · ± 132 uncertainty

Brier Score · Conflict0.2569 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Conflict62%13 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Conflict-0.041 scored

ROI-0.1RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Conflict+0.975 scored

RS · Conflict-1.3

Reputation104.3 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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