k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3036 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Conflict60%10 resolved
ROI-2.82RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Conflict+0.482 scored
RS · Conflict-28.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.017
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.014
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES✗ 0.846
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO✗ 0.410
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO✗ 0.331
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO✓ 0.203
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES