k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3697 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics58%12 resolved
ROI-6.6RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.482 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
No source link
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
56% YES
—
Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
2commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will officially confirm that Russia violated the Chemical Weapons Convention in connection with Alexei Navalny's death by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Mark Janwuf
NO