komapc

@komapc

JoinedFebruary 2026

All135 Geopolitics67 politics40 Conflict38 Middle East30 Technology22 Israel21 Elections18 Israeli Elections 202617

ELO Rating

1445

Conflict only · head-to-head

Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.

created(40)participated(38)resolved(15)

1AI: 97±4%Conflict Africa

A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.

komapc

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.

komapc

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1AI: 68±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 46±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Houthi movement will lose control of at least one significant territory currently under its control by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 58±3%Geopolitics US Politics

President Trump will order the deployment of US ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

komapc

AI: 63±9%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

3Geopolitics Conflict

Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.

komapc

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

komapc

3AI: 68±3%Geopolitics Conflict

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

komapc

2AI: 75±5%Geopolitics Conflict

The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.

komapc

4AI: 64±11%Geopolitics Conflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 57±6%Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

komapc

AI: 50±42%Geopolitics Middle East

Turkey will conduct a ground invasion of Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 67±9%Geopolitics Middle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

1Geopolitics Conflict

Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.

komapc

Wrong

1Geopolitics Conflict

Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.

komapc

AI: 69±8%Geopolitics Conflict

Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.

komapc

Correct

1Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.

komapc

1AI: 74±8%Conflict Geopolitics

Significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher is reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026.

komapc

Performance

Accuracy · Conflict64%14 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Conflict0.25310 scored · lower is better

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.