k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3697 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics58%12 resolved
ROI-6.6RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.482 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
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komapcA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
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komapcA
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At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
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The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
No source link
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The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
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The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
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Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
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US PoliticsGeopolitics
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
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Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
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Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
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Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
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Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
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Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
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Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
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GeopoliticsConflict
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
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TechnologyAI
India will be widely recognized as a significant global hub for affordable and scalable artificial intelligence by December 31, 2026.
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Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
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