k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
No source link
2commitments
K
komapcA
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
—
Kalshi will become more popular than Polymarket by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
—
The United States will deploy ground troops to Iran by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
Correct
EnergyEurope
At least three new nuclear power station projects will be formally announced in Europe by December 31, 2026.
US PoliticsGeopolitics
President Trump will post more tweets on X (formerly Twitter) discussing domestic economic issues than the Iran war by December 31, 2026.
TechnologyAI
Meta's Moltbook AI venture will be widely reported by major financial news outlets as a financial bubble that has burst by March 12, 2027.
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The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
1commitments
K
komapcA
—
Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
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komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
2commitments
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komapcA
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
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komapcA
GeopoliticsConflict
Russia will accelerate the development of its nuclear triad and other advanced systems for its armed forces.
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Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
3commitments
K
komapcA